In such case, only the write-in vote is void." Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Scenario Analysis. Further, if the user ignores the warning, an analysis can be conducted using the data validation feature in Excel that identifies incorrect inputs. These bearish markets provide ample opportunity for contrarian and long-term focused investors. The organization analyzed 61,190 undervotes and 113,820 overvotes. Find all the information about sensitivity analysis from meaning, uses, to methods of measurement, parameters while carrying sensitivity analysis and much more. Meaning of Sensitivity Analysis. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. The manual recounts were time-consuming, and it soon became clear that some counties would not complete their recounts before the deadline. Entertainment & Arts Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. Says Fred Schneider, We are old. Scenario Analysis If the p-value becomes 0.03 under this scenario, then the results are robust. Furthermore, the Florida Administrative Code: 1S-2.0031, "Write-in Procedures Governing Electronic Voting Systems", (7) at the time specified, "An overvote shall occur when an elector casts a vote on the ballot card and also casts a write-in vote for a qualified write-in candidate for that same office. This represents a much smaller right skew since the values are closer together. Gore request for recounts in four counties: Florida Supreme Court order: accepts completed recounts for Broward, Palm Beach, Volusia and Miami-Dade (139 precincts); applies the above "prevailing standard" (but with no overvotes) to remaining Miami-Dade and other 63 counties. Taylor County determined voter intent on some overvotes; however, it did not include them in its certified results. Robust enumeration of cell subsets from tissue expression Labor Archives of Washington, University of Washington Libraries Special Collections. What is scenario analysis? Undervotes from optical-scan counties, however, correlate with Democratic votes more than Republican votes, and in particular to counties that scanned ballots at a central location rather than at precinct locations. The Monte Carlo simulation for Scenario 2 show a much more normalized result (Figure 7). Sensitivity Analysis, among other models, is put much more to use as a decision support model than merely a tool to reach one optimal solution. Dr. Gary King of Harvard University applied statistical modeling to determine that the best estimate for the impact of illegal votes would reduce the certified vote margin for Bush from 537 to 245. "[4] According to Anthony Salvado, a political scientist at the University of California, Irvine, who acted as a consultant on the media recount, most of the errors were caused by ballot design, ballot wording, and efforts by voters to choose both a president and a vice president. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated CVP Analysis Guide The Scenario 1 and 2 median growth rates were calculated earlier using Monte Carlo simulations with values of 3.16% and 5.35% respectively. Sauls also rejected Gore's contest of the election result on December 4, and Gore appealed that decision too. The "set aside" ballots were dimpled ballots that were challenged by the two parties. Sensitivity analyses play a crucial role in assessing the robustness of the findings or conclusions based on primary analyses of data in clinical trials. 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida, County-by-county standards for write-in overvotes in 2000. Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly two-coder general agreement for punch card ballots. The results of this tally were to be added to the November 26 tally. Sensitivity, to a first approximation, is this counterfactual relation: Ss belief that p is sensitive if and only if, if p were false, S would not believe that p. A sensitivity condition on knowledge was defended by Robert Nozick (1981). It was anecdotal evidence at best, and local authorities argued persuasively that the police presence near a polling place was pure coincidence. "[4] A physical mark on a ballot, at or near a designated target, is such an indication. Sensitivity analyses play a crucial role in assessing the robustness of the findings or conclusions based on primary analyses of data in clinical trials. We suggest that this is a useful scenario for investors who anticipate extreme volatility through their perpetual holding period and can use the 3.16% median dividend growth rate to determine their entrance price for JPM. The intent of this article is to value JPM for long-term dividend focused investors. Also note that the standard deviation is 55.3% with a 95% confidence interval between -2.1% and 29.7%. Utilizing quantitative methods for investment decisions is intended to help mitigate risk. The 1st United States Congress provided the detailed organization of a federal judiciary through the Judiciary Act of 1789.The Supreme Court, the country's highest judicial tribunal, was to sit in the nation's Capital and would initially be composed of a chief justice and five associate justices. Youre testing one input/variable and measuring how it impacts your output. Nine other counties said that it was a possibility, while 49 counties said that they would not have counted reclaimable overvotes per the court's order. Sensitivity analysis is a management tool that helps in determining how different values of an independent variable can affect a particular dependent variable. [10] The county canvassing board was then to decide whether to do a recount, as well as the method of the recount, in those three precincts. Scenario Analysis The study also found that undervotes originating in optical-scan counties differ from those from punchcard counties in a particular characteristic. Scenario & Sensitivity Analyses. Uncertainty in risk assessment can be present in the characterization of the exposure scenario, the parameter estimates, and model predictions. Combining this with a Monte Carlo simulation allows for a virtual representation of future outcomes. The lack of certainty in the premises and inputs brings about investment risk. Sensitivity Analysis At an NAACP-sponsored hearing in Miami four days after the election, prospective voters told of police cars blocking the way to the polls, of voters harassed by election workers. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. When the county segregated all ballots by machine for the NORC review, 512 previously rejected ballots were determined to be completely valid. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a model (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in the model input (Saltelli, 2002). [37] Because there was no clear indication of what the voters intended, those numbers were not included in the consortium's final tabulations. Aside from this case, also in dispute were the criteria that each county's canvassing board would use in examining the overvotes and/or undervotes. Long-term focused dividend investors should take advantage of bearish markets and find strong "Contrarian" investments. Negative sign indicates number of votes that decision caused to be excluded from state certified total. Compounded annual growth rate formula (Investopedia). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Furthermore, the number of undervotes correlates with how well the punch-card machines are maintained, and not with factors such as race or socioeconomic status. Scenario 1. Canvassing boards of Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Charlotte, Columbia, Escambia, Franklin, Gulf, Hendry, Hernando, Holmes, Lake, Manatee, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, St. Johns and Washington Counties, Election day decisions by 17 Optiscan counties not to "manually review overvotes that couldn't be properly read by machine", Canvassing boards of Alachua, Bay, Charlotte, Citrus, Columbia, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Holmes, Jackson, Lake, Leon, Manatee, Monroe, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, St. Johns, Suwanee and Washington Counties, Election day decisions by 19 Optiscan counties not to "manually review undervotes that couldn't be read by counting machines", Canvassing boards of Collier, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Glades, Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Jefferson, Lee, Madison, Marion, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Sumter and Wakulla Counties, Election day decisions by 21 punch-card counties not to "attempt to determine voter intent on undervotes that couldn't be read by counting machines", The above 21 boards plus Palm Beach County Canvassing Board, Election day decisions by 22 punch-card counties not to "attempt to determine voter intent on overvotes that couldn't be properly read by machine", Decision not to review dimpled ballots with clear indications of intent, Decision to change county's certified vote from the mechanical recount total back to the election night vote total, Decision not to include Palm Beach County's vote recount results (all but 53 precincts) submitted before certification deadline, Decision not to include Miami-Dade County's vote recount results (139 precincts) accomplished before certification deadline. 10. But theres a key difference. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. Upon such an overvote, the entire vote for that office shall be void and shall not be counted. As an example, an investor who normally expects a 6% return may expect a 7% return as a Margin of Safety and change their purchase price accordingly. The Athens, Ga., new wave pioneers are wrapping up their last-ever tour. [19]:215221 According to a 2001 study in the American Political Science Review, the voting errors caused by the butterfly ballot cost Gore the election: "Had PBC used a ballot format in the presidential race that did not lead to systematic biased voting errors, our findings suggest that, other things equal, Al Gore would have won a majority of the officially certified votes in Florida. Financial Planning & Analysis Modeling Certification (FPAMC They are a critical way to assess the impact, effect or influence of key assumptions or variationssuch as different methods of analysis, definitions of outcomes, protocol deviations, missing data, and Mass cytometry time-of-flight (CyTOF) is a powerful technique to profile immune cells and could be applied to tumour detection. ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF GATEWAY PROCESS 10. When Palm Beach County completed its recount two hours after the certification deadline, its final count was Gore 501 votes, Bush 327 votes excluded from the state certified total. 12. The analysis from the multimethod ensemble indicates that a global increase in temperature of 1 C will reduce global rice yield by an average of 3.2 3.7%, much less than for maize and wheat (Fig. rejected by the Florida Supreme Court in its ruling of December 8, 2000, the lightly populated counties of Gadsden, Hamilton, Lafayette and Union. [77] Florida State University professor of public policy Lance deHaven-Smith observed that, even considering only undervotes, "under any of the five most reasonable interpretations of the Florida Supreme Court ruling, Gore does, in fact, more than make up the deficit". An excellent and widely used example of the benefit of Bayes Theorem is in the analysis of a medical diagnostic test. Of those overvotes, 68,476 chose Gore and a minor candidate; 23,591 chose Bush and a minor candidate. Even though four other Optiscan counties (Hamilton, Polk, Seminole, Taylor) manually reviewed machine-rejected ballots for votes to include in their certified totals, Includes increase in Orange County's unofficially revised machine-tabulated vote total, due to machine later counting 512 ballots that were previously machine-rejected ("could not be distinguished from ballots that were accepted and counted they appeared to be properly completed"): Gore 249, Bush 184 (total 433). Robust enumeration of cell subsets from tissue expression Democrats claimed that many of these were not felons and should have been eligible to vote under Florida law. JPMorgan Chase: Dividend Statistics For Being Contrarian (JPM) They are a critical way to assess the impact, effect or influence of key assumptions or variationssuch as different methods of analysis, definitions of outcomes, protocol deviations, missing data, and Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. Scenario & Sensitivity Analyses. She said that she used both sides of the ballot in order to make the candidate names larger so the county's elderly residents could more easily see the names.[54]. Finance Scenario 1. George W. Bush, et al., Petitioners v. Albert Gore, Jr., et al. The act also divided the country into judicial districts, which were in turn organized into circuits. However, this form of analysis becomes ambiguous when the terms pessimistic and optimistic become subjective to the user and the levels considered are set as per the user. Fig. Financial Planning & Analysis Modeling Certification (FPAMC [76], The NORC was expecting 176,446 uncounted ballots to be available from Florida's counties, based on county precinct reports that produced the final, state-certified vote totals. A key feature of scenarios is that they should challenge conventional wisdom about the future. The review's findings were reported in the media during the week after November 12, 2001, by the organizations that funded the recount: Associated Press, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, St. Petersburg Times, The Palm Beach Post and Tribune Publishing, which included the Los Angeles Times, South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Orlando Sentinel and Chicago Tribune. SC00-2431, Albert Gore, Jr., and Joseph I. Lieberman, Appellants, vs. Katherine Harris, as Secretary, etc., et al., Appellees", "2000 Presidential Election - Handcount (00genhc.xls)", "Counting the vote: the overview; Bush is declared winner in Florida, but Gore vows to contest results", "Disputed Palm Beach ballots held potential gains for Gore", "General, Nonpartisan and Special Elections Recount; Miami-Dade County, Florida", "Statistical Practice: Reliability of the Uncertified Ballots in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida", "Newspapers' recount shows Bush prevailed", "Florida voter errors cost Gore the election", "Battlefield Florida: A Chat with Lance deHaven-Smith", How we got here: A timeline of the Florida recount, Video highlight of Florida Supreme Court Chief Justice Wells opening, Video highlights of November 20, 2000 and December 7, 2000 oral arguments in. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. About 19,000 ballots were spoiled because of overvotes (two votes in the same race), compared to 3000 in 1996. The case of Palm Beach Canvassing Board v. Katherine Harris (also known as Harris I) was a lawsuit about whether county canvassing boards had authority to extend manual recounts in order to inspect ballots for which the machine counter did not register a vote. USA Today, The Miami Herald, and Knight Ridder commissioned accounting firm BDO Seidman to count undervotes. Says Fred Schneider, We are old. Four counties distributed sample ballots to voters that differed from the actual ballot used on election day, including Duval County, which used a caterpillar ballot, so called because the list of presidential candidates stretched over two pages. This means that the normalized data 95% of the time fell between those values. By a 54 vote the justices reversed and remanded the case to the Florida Supreme Court "for further proceedings not inconsistent with this opinion", prior to the optional "safe harbor" deadline which the Florida court had said the state intended to meet. On December 4, the Court ordered the Florida Supreme Court to clarify its ruling that had extended the certification date. That part of the vote count was completed on November 18, increasing Bush's lead to 930 votes. Machine Learning Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. The decision was extremely controversial due to its partisan split and the majority's unusual instruction that its judgment in Bush v. Gore should not set precedent but should be "limited to the present circumstances". These standards are applied to both undervotes and overvotes. Analysis In its opinion, the Supreme Court cited several areas where the Florida Supreme Court had violated both the federal and Florida constitutions. Furthermore, the study did not consider overvotes, ballots that registered more than one vote when counted by machine. Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. The median is chosen because in distributions with large skews like this, it is a better representation of the truer middle. Fitted line plots: If you have one independent variable and the dependent variable, use a fitted line plot to display the data along with the fitted regression line and essential regression output.These graphs make understanding the model more intuitive. Directed by Jay Roach, it starred Kevin Spacey as Ron Klain, Bob Balaban as Benjamin Ginsberg, Ed Begley Jr. as David Boies, Laura Dern as Katherine Harris, John Hurt as Warren Christopher, Denis Leary as Michael Whouley, Bruce McGill as Mac Stipanovich, and Tom Wilkinson as James Baker. [2] Gore phoned Bush the night of the election to concede, then retracted his concession after learning how close the Florida count was.[3]. Bush's name appeared at the top of the ballot, sparing most Bush voters from error. the same name, a blank space or a historical or fictional name (1): the same name, a blank space or an uncertified person's name, the same name, a blank space, a historical or fictional name or an uncertified person's name. Objective Early detection of a tumour remains an unmet medical need, and approaches with high sensitivity and specificity are urgently required. In addition, some counties had provided an extra 432 total ballots, while others produced 1333 fewer ballots than expected. While utilizing short term scorecards is a beneficial starting point, the focus on long-term investments makes dividend performance over longer periods of time more challenging to predict and increases uncertainty for the future. A good representation of the issues with this variance is the difference between the mean and median of the growth rates which are 13.82% and 4.82% respectively. It can be useful in a wide range of subjects apart from finance, such as engineering, geography, biology, etc. There is a real issue here about what voting actually means. On the other hand, he said, Democrats talked like referees with a fear of pushing too hard, not wanting to be seen as sore losers. Using historical data and Monte Carlo simulations, we can estimate potential future growth rates for investment decisions. Utilizing the quantitative methods demonstrated in this article support buying into the current negative movement as a contrarian investment. The Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) formula can also be utilized over different time periods to show potential trends (Figure 9). [4][6] According to legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin, later analysis showed that a total of 18 countiesaccounting for a quarter of all votes cast in Floridadid not carry out the legally mandated machine recount, but "No one from the Gore campaign ever challenged this view" that the machine recount had been completed.[7]. Entertainment & Arts In times of exceptional uncertainty and risk (present economic conditions), it is beneficial to increase the return expectation as a way of factoring in a margin of safety. Spy Kids To understand scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on a set of assumptions and inputs. Figure 5. Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. On November 11, it joined a group of Florida voters in suing in federal district court for a preemptive injunction to stop all manual recounting of votes in Florida. Objective Early detection of a tumour remains an unmet medical need, and approaches with high sensitivity and specificity are urgently required. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. analysis Robust enumeration of cell subsets from tissue expression Scenario Analysis Scenarios 15:16. Officials in a majority of punch-card counties said they would accept a single-corner detached chad as an indicator of voter intent, and officials in a majority of optical scan counties said they would accept all affirmative marks as described in NORC codes as indicators of voter intent. It won Outstanding Television Movie at the Primetime Emmy Awards, with Roach winning Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special, and Dern a Golden Globe Award for Best Supporting Actress Series, Miniseries or Television Film.

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